Sam Farmer's NFL wild-card playoff picks

Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times on Jan 9, 2025

Published in Football

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Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 12-4 (.750); season 189-83 (.695). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 9-7 (.563); season 144-126-2 (.533). Times Pacific.

No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 4 Houston

Saturday, 1:30 p.m. TV: CBS, Paramount+

Line: Chargers by 2 1/2. Over/Under: 42 1/2.

Houston's offensive line has struggled all season, and C.J. Stroud hasn't been as hot as he was as a rookie. What's more, he lacks really good receivers. The Texans have lost two of their last three. The Chargers' Justin Herbert should collect his first postseason win, especially with the way he's distributing the ball. J.K. Dobbins sets the tempo. Chargers 27, Texans 17

No. 6 Pittsburgh at No. 3 Baltimore

Saturday, 5 p.m. TV: Amazon Prime Video

Line: Ravens by 9 1/2. Over/Under: 43 1/2.

The Steelers have lost four in a row, including a 34-17 thumping at Baltimore two weeks ago. Generating offense has been a problem for Pittsburgh, which hasn't scored more than 17 in the last four games. Meanwhile, Baltimore has topped 30 four weeks in a row. This game is usually close, but ... Ravens 28, Steelers 16

No. 7 Denver at No. 2 Buffalo

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: CBS, Paramount+

Line: Bills by 8 1/2. Over/Under: 47 1/2.

Denver is coming off a decisive win, but against Kansas City's JV team. As well as Bo Nix has played, it's a daunting task to make a playoff debut on the road against these Bills. Buffalo has scored at least 40 points in three of its last five games and was 8-0 at home this season. Difficult to keep pace with Josh Allen. Bills 28, Broncos 21

No. 7 Green Bay at No. 2 Philadelphia

Sunday, 1:30 p.m. TV: Fox, Fox Deportes

Line: Eagles by 4 1/2. Over/Under: 45 1/2.

Both quarterbacks are banged up, with Green Bay's Jordan Love dealing with numbness in his throwing hand and Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts coming off a concussion. The Eagles' Saquon Barkley ran for three touchdowns in opener against the Packers and now is fresh and rested. Philadelphia's defense makes the difference in this matchup. Eagles 28, Packers 23

No. 6 Washington at No. 3 Tampa Bay

Sunday, 5 p.m. PST. TV: NBC, Peacock, Universo

Line: Buccaneers by 3. Over/Under: 50 1/2.

Amazing season for quarterback Jayden Daniels, but the Commanders have been up and down this season, at times failing to get star receiver Terry McLaurin involved. Despite a four-game midseason losing streak, Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay have come on strong in recent weeks. Buccaneers 27, Commanders 23

No. 5 Minnesota at No. 4 Los Angeles Rams

Monday, 5 p.m. PST. TV: ABC, ESPN, ESPN+, ESPN2, ESPN Deportes

Line: Vikings by 1 1/2. Over/Under: 47 1/2.

There's no doubt the Vikings have been impressive this season and have lots of ways to score but Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford gets the nod over Sam Darnold. The Rams haven't consistently clicked on offense recently, but their prime-time performers are rested and should step up. Rams 28, Vikings 24