Greg Cote's Week 17 NFL picks

A not-sweet Week 16 for us, specially against the spread (with the Vikings’ 3-point win the push). We missed our Upset of the Week, missed on Fins-Niners and got unlucky on Jalen Hurts’ injury. The good stuff? One point off an Exacto perfect score on Lions-Bears, and had Dallas with the points over Tampa. With two weeks left our .675 mark outright is very solid but we’re now down to five games over .500 against the betting line. Finish strong! [Note: Our Christmas Day picks were Chiefs (14-1, -2 1/2) over @Steelers (10-5), 24-18, and Ravens (10-5, -5 1/2) over @Texans (9-6), 27-20. Our Thursday night pick was Seahawks (8-7, -3 1/2) over @Bears (4-11), 23-16.]

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Week 16: 10-6, .625 overall; 6-9-1, .406 vs. spread.

Season: 162-78, 675 overall; 120-115-5, .511 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 17 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

FALCONS (8-7) at COMMANDERS (10-5)

Line: WAS by 4 1/2.

Cote’s pick: WAS, 27-24.

TV: 8:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC/Peacock.

[Playoff impact: WAS clinches playoffs with a win and loss by TB. ATL clinches division with a win and a loss by TB.] Green Bay-Minnesota had much backing from the Game of the Week committee, but this Sunday prime-time duel won by a nose on playoff bearing. Washington is the only one of nine 10-win teams to not yet clinch a postseason spot but tries again here as Atlanta seeks to qualify as well by winning its division. Commanders pass defense will make it tough on Michael Penix Jr. in a way the Giants did not last week in his first NFL start. But Bijan Robinson will own big turf vs. Comms beatable run-D to keep game inside the bet-line.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

PACKERS (11-4) at VIKINGS (13-2)

Line: GB by 1.

Cote’s pick: MIN, 27-24.

TV: 4:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

[Playoff impact: Both are playoff-clinched, so stakes here are relatively low.] “AAWWK!” carols the Upset Bird. “Not much of an upsaawwk!” Yeah, I know. Near-pick-’em games aren’t true upsets, but few Week 17 games had Big U potential that drew us in, and so a 13-2 team as a home ‘dog (by any amount) qualifies, if only technically. Vikes beat Pack, 31-29, early in season but led 28-0 before a wild Gee Bees comeback. Minny’s elite run defense will goad Jordan Love into a couple of turnovers as Purples score first season sweep of Green Bay since 2017. “Appreciate the use of the word ‘goad’,” notes U-Bird as a random aside. “Vikings are 7-1 at home, by the way. By the waawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 17:

Christmas Day picks were Chiefs (14-1, -2 1/2) over @Steelers (10-5), 24-18, and Ravens (10-5, -5 1/2) over @Texans (9-6), 27-20: We were a perfect 2-0/2-0. Thursday night pick was Seahawks (8-7, -3 1/2) over @Bears (4-11), 23-16.

Chargers (9-6, -4 1/2) over @Patriots (3-12), 24-13: [Playoff impact: LAC clinch playoffs with win or losses by MIA and IND. NE is long out of it.] Dolphins fans will be in unusual spot: Cheering for the Patriots to win. NE hasn’t quit, as Buffalo learned last week. But Chargers, with stakes and a rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday, should handle Pats in this first of three Saturday games.

@Bengals (7-8, -3 1/2) over Broncos (9-6), 27-23: [Playoff impact: DEN clinches playoffs with win. CIN is alive but must win and get help.] If Chargers win earlier Saturday, Miami would be eliminated from playoff contention with a Denver win in this middle of three Saturday tilts. Been a season-long climb from an 0-3 start for Cincy, but Joe Burrow-to-Ja’Marr Chase has been deadly as any combo in NFL. Riding that hot duo at home.

@Rams (9-6, -6 1/2) over Cardinals (7-8), 31-17: [Playoff impact: LAR would win division with win and SEA loss. ARI is out.] Arizona clobbered the Rams, 41-10, in September and is a danger in a division spoiler role this time, but we’re feeling payback here in the prime-time cap to Saturday’s tripleheader. Matthew Stafford has led L.A. to four straight wins and the Rams’ D as allowed only 15 total points in past two.

@Bills (12-3, -8 1/2) over Jets (4-11), 37-13: [Playoff impact: BUF has clinched division and cannot win No. 1 seed so has little to play for. NYJ is way done.] Kansas City’s Christmas Day win earned the No. 1 seed and bye, so might Buffs limit key starters’ time on field? I’d sooner bet that, after only beating the Jets 23-20 in October and just getting by Pats 24-21 last week, Josh Allen’s Bills (7-0 at home) will be out to generate momentum heading into playoffs.

Raiders (3-12, -1) over @Saints (5-10), 19-17: [Playoff impact: None. Both are out.] N’Awlins getting QB Derek Carr back from hand injury to face his ex-team would spice an otherwise bland matchup, but it was looking on Thursday like Spencer Rattler again. Vegas has been bad on road but is still playing hard and the offense cooks a bit better with Aidan O’Connell. So lean there in a near-pick-’em game.

Colts (7-8, -7 1/2) over @Giants (2-13), 27-16: [Playoff impact: IND is alive but cannot clinch here. NYG were eliminated in the Cretaceous Period.] A Colts loss here would benefit Miami — if Broncos or Chargers lose Saturday to keep Fins’ hopes alive. Giants have lost 10 straight, only covering the spread once, and are NFL’s only winless home team (0-8) in nightmare year for Brian Daboll. Indy QB Anthony Richardson is banged up but Jonathan Taylor will lope for miles on NYG’s awful run-D.

Dolphins (7-8, -6 1/2) over @Browns (3-12), 24-16: [Playoff impact: To stay alive, MIA must have DEN or LAC lose on Saturday and then beat the Browns. CLE of course is way eliminated.] Miami will know before kickoff if their game in the cold of Cleveland is must-win or meaningless. Denver and the L.A. Chargers both play Saturday and at least one needs to lose. If both win the Fins are finished no matter their result on the shore of Lake Erie. Miami won these teams’ last meeting in 2022 but lost its most recent trip to Cleveland in ‘19. The Dolphins are only 2-5 on the road and Tua Tagovailoa’s track record in cold weather is dismal. Sunday’s afternoon-into-evening clime in Cleve is forecast for high 40s but with a likelihood of rain — dismal in my book. Still like Miami, especially with Browns’ QB straits. Dorian Thompson-Robinson (calf) and the demoted Jameis Winston (shoulder) both are hobbled, though DTR is expected to start. Browns have scored 17 points or fewer in 11 of their 12 losses. Now top targets Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku also are both are iffy to play, while Fins hope to have Jaylen Waddle back.

@Eagles (12-3, -7 1/2) over Cowboys (7-8), 23-17: [Playoff impact: PHI has clinched playoffs and can win division with win here and loss by WAS. DAL is out.] These NFC East rivals both entered season with sky-high hopes. One of them has lived up. Tough pick here, though, because Birds QB Jalen Hurts (concussion) was very iffy as of Thursday and backup Kenny Pickett (ribs) also was limited. Behind door No. 3: One Tanner McKee. Meanwhile Cowboys are good fit for spoilers, as Tampa learned last week, and Cooper Rush has played well lately. Hunch Philly finds a way, but lean ‘Boys on the cover.

@Buccaneers (8-7, -8) over Panthers (4-11), 27-23: [Playoff impact: TB is alive for division title but cannot clinch here. CAR is way done.] Bucs have beaten Cats four in a row and eight of past nine but needed OT to sneak by on Dec. 1. Atlanta owns tiebreaker edge in NFC South, so could be division title-or-bust for Tampa. Carolina has been competitive second half of season, but this is must-win home test Baker Mayfield’s Bucs.

Titans (3-12, -1) over @Jaguars (3-12), 17-14: [Playoff impact: Ha! You’re kidding, right?] With teams this level of bad, games are typically lost by mistakes more than won with great plays. So this is a telling trend I’m saddling up: Tennessee’s defense has collected seven takeaways in past three games. Jacksonville’s offense has sloppied to a minus-seven turnover margin in its past four games.

Lions (13-2, -3 1/2) over @49ers (6-9), 30-20: [Playoff impact: DET clinches playoffs’ No. 1 NFC seed and bye with a win and a MIN loss. SF is eliminated.] This NFC championship game rematch was supposed to be a great one for Monday night. But one team failed to hold up its end. Detroit has NFL’s only perfect road record (7-0) and should maintain that. Niners are dangerous as spoilers and could capitalize on Lions’ defensive injuries, but Jared Goff and this Motown offense (now with heaver doses of Jahmyr Gibbs) outscore just about everybody in its path.

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of mid-afternoon Thursday.]