Hurricane center forecasts Caribbean system could form, move into Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday was keeping tabs on two systems with the potential to develop into a tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. Eastern time advisory, only one was a threat to land.

That was a broad area of low pressure that could develop late this weekend or early next over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

“Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 20% chance of development in the next seven days.

Forecasters at Colorado State University said global models show that system could potentially grow into a formidable, if not short-lived system.

“This system could be strong and consequently generate moderate ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy),” reads the CSU short-term tropical outlook. “Regardless of how much ACE the system generates, any development in the western Caribbean should be closely monitored for potential landfall impacts.”

CSU’s outlook also shows more potential tropical formation in the eastern and central Atlantic toward the end of September.

The season may also not be done with what had been Tropical Storm Gordon, although it’s still no threat to land.

The NHC was tracking the remnants of Gordon, which were still producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the central tropical Atlantic.

The system is forecast to mix with a nontropical low to the northwest as it heads north-northeast at 5 to 10 mph in the next couple of days.

“Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development later this week, and a tropical depression or storm could reform in a few days while the system moves slowly northward over the central subtropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 20% chance to develop within two days and 50% in the next seven.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has produced seven named storms. The next on the list would be Tropical Storm Helene.

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