Greg Cote's NFL Week 18 picks

No Thursday prime-time. No Monday night. All division games — with three division titles yet to be won. And 18 teams will play their final game of the season and await their draft order as we close the regular schedule and set the 14-team playoff field. Twelve playoff teams have been decided and five are alive for the final two spots. Exciting! As for my season, I went a robust 14-2 straight-up last week and am shining on that bend. Also picked up two more games on the right side of .500 against the spread. This is my 34th season of NFL picks in the Herald and it’s been a solid year all-round for me after a rough start. Now let’s finish strong!

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Week 17: 14-2, .875 overall; 9-7, .563 vs. spread.

Season: 176-80, 688 overall; 129-122-5, .514 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 18 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

VIKINGS (14-2) at LIONS (14-2)

Line: DET by 3.

Cote’s pick: DET 38-34.

TV: 8:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC/Peacock.

[Playoff impact: Extra-large. Winner-take-all. Winner here is the NFC North champion and earns the coveted No. 1 conference seed and first-round bye. Loser settles for the No. 5 seed.] This Sunday-nighter to close the 2024 regular season isn’t just the Game of the Week — it might be the (preplayoffs) Game of the Season. King Sport is ending with a capital-B Bang! There is the first ever NFL regular-season game between two 14-win teams or with 28 wins combined, and the loser will be the proverbial wild-card team nobody wants to face. Minnesota is on a nine-game win streak, Detroit has won 13 of past 14 and both excel in winning close games. Lions and Vikes are known for offense — who would have believed a few yeas ago that Jared Goff vs. Sam Darnold would be a marquee duel? — but both also have top-10 scoring defenses. One team will stake its claim as a top Super Bowl favorite. DET has won four straight in series and past three in Motown, so make it a venue pick in what is almost guaranteed to be a shootout thriller.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

COMMANDERS (11-5) at COWBOYS (7-9)

Line: WAS by 5.

Cote’s pick: DAL, 24-21.

TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

[Playoff impact: Low. WAS is already playoff-clinched as wild card.] “AAWWK!” heralds the Upset Bird. “Happy New Yaaawwwk!” Comms can sew up No. 6 NFC seed with win, so there’s a sliver of spoiler role left for Dallas. Jayden Daniels has been good on the road as a rookie (10-2 TDs-picks), but Boys are on three-game streak in series, including 34-26 in November. Dallas also has won three straight at home over WAS. Will this be Mike McCarthy’s final game before ol’ Jerry fires him? Do his players care enough to send him out a winner or (against odds) save his job? “High-risk upset pick even with Washingtaawwk having little incentive,” notes U-Bird. “Cowbaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 18:

@Ravens (11-5, -18) over Browns (3-13), 34-7: [Playoff impact: Big. BAL takes AFC North crown with win, or if PIT loses.] Saturday doubleheader decides one of three division titles still up for grabs in final week of regular season — with home playoff game the prize. Ravens host early game as season’s biggest betting favorite as Lamar Jackson makes his case for another MVP award while Browns jockey for No. 1 draft pick. CLE has won two straight in series, but its offense has disappeared and L-Jack and Crows should fly.

Bengals (8-8, -2 1/2) over @Steelers (10-6), 24-20: [Playoff impact: Big. PIT is playoff-clinched but would win AFC North with victory via tiebreaker IF BAL loses. Earlier game CIN with win would take final wild-card playoff spot ONLY if DEN and MIA both lost Sunday .] Ton riding on Saturday prime-timer, and Cincy arrives on four-game win streak and Pitt on three-game skid — though Steelers have won three straight in rivalry. Temp sinking into teens with wind gusts adds to the tough call. Hot Joe Burrow is hobbled (wrist/knee) but nobody doubts he will play, and he will bring more firepower than PIT has lately shown.

@Falcons (8-8, -7 1/2) over Panthers (4-12), 30-23: [Playoff impact: Big. ATL would make playoffs via NFC South title with win here — but ONLY if TB loses in concurrent game.] Teams split previous four seasons but Falcons poised for first sweep since 2019 after 38-20 October win. Michael Penix Jr. on display again for Birds. Carolina defense has been beaten for 30-plus points in four of past six games, but hunch Cats stay close.

@Packers (11-5, -10) over Bears (4-12), 23-16: [Playoff impact: Low. GB already is playoff-clinched as wild-card.] Pack can move up a spot in seeding and avoid first-round playoff trip to Philly with a win IF Washington cooperates by losing. Temp in teens should make for classic Lambeau tableau, though sans the snow. Gee Bees’ win streak over CHI is 11 games and eight straight at home, and Bears are 0-7 on road.

Texans (9-7, +2) over @Titans (3-13), 19-16: [Playoff impact: Very low. HOU already has clinched AFC South and fourth seed.] Upset! (Sort of.) Tennessee favored (however slightly) suggests HOU could rest key players, but coach says healthy starters will play, though C.J. Stroud is banged up and him sitting would not shock. Texans have won five in a row in series. Titans have lost five in row overall, are 1-6 at home, and 0-4 covering as fave. After two straight losses, HOU is playing for a tailwind of momentum entering postseason.

@Colts (7-9, -5) over Jaguars (4-12), 24-16: [Playoff impact: Zilch. Both out.] Indy blew playoff shot last week with gag-job loss at Giants. Colts can take out the frustration here and hope to have Anthony Richardson back. Jags have won three in row in series including 37-34 in October, but Indy is on a 5-1 run over Jacksonville in its home dome. Jonathan Taylor (assuming he plays) should run all day vs Jags’ subpar run D.

Bills (13-3, -2 1/2) over @Patriots (3-13), 20-17: [Playoff impact: Very low. BUF already has clinched AFC East but can’t get top seed.] Locked into No. 2 AFC slot, Buffs starters such as Josh Allen might only play a series or so — even though a big game by Allen would benefit his wobbling league-MVP status. Counting on Bills backups to cover a small number, especially because Pats clinch overall No. 1 NFL Draft pick by losing so literally have no incentive to win.

@Eagles (13-3, -3) over Giants (3-13), 23-16: [Playoff impact: Very low. PHI already has clinched NFC East but can’t get top seed.] Really surprised by news Saquon Barkley will sit this out and abandon his near-certain chance to break Eric Dickerson’s long-standing record of 2,105 season rushing yards. (He’s only 101 from owning his piece of history.) Obviously Barkley’s call, though. Jalen Hurts also will sit, although Birds hope to have backup Kenny Pickett available.

@Buccaneers (9-7, -13 1/2) over Saints (5-11), 30-20: [Playoff impact: Big. TB makes playoffs as NFC South champ by winning, or if ATL loses.] Saints in a prime spoiler role, but Tampa on a 4-1 series run and rolled up 51 points on N’Awlins in October. Hard to gauge the emotional weight on Saints after that New Year’s terrorist attack on Bourbon Street killed at least 15 revelers. Spencer Rattler poised for third straight start for NO, and Alvin Kamara could be out again.

@Broncos (9-7, -10 1/2) over Chiefs (15-1), 21-17: [Playoff impact: Huge. And simple. DEN earns final AFC wild-card spot with a win; otherwise, ONLY if MIA and CIN both lose. KC already has locked up No. 1 seed] Betting line swung crazy to Denver after Andy Reid said Chiefs starters led by Patrick Mahomes would not play. (A dagger for Miami’s hopes.) K.C. has won 17 of past 18 in series including 16-14 in November, but these will be the semi-Chiefs. Broncos have won four in a row at home and should keep that going. But it’s still a division rivalry, and Carson Wentz is solid backup, so like Chiefs’ cover.

Chargers (10-6, -4) over @Raiders (4-12), 27-16: [Playoff impact: Low. LAC already have clinched wild-card spot.] Bolts could move up a spot in seeding with a win, which suggests Jim Harbaugh will likely deploy his starters. Teams have split last six meetings, with Chargers scoring a 22-10 win in November. Vegas has won two straight with a bit of a spark from Aidan O’Connell. Pick presumes we’ll see a full dose of Herbert/Dobbins/McConkey.

Seahawks (9-7, -6 1/2) over @Rams (10-6), 24-20: [Playoff impact: Low. LAR already have cinched NFC West.] Rams can lock up No. 3 seed with win but aren’t concerned because they’re sitting Matthew Stafford and other starters. That means Jimmy Garoppolo, who at 33 might be auditioning for one last shot to be somebody’s starter. Rams have won three straight in series, but Hawks are good on road (6-1), and having best record of any non-playoff teams adds incentive to end strong.

49ers (6-10, +4 1/2) over @Cardinals (7-9), 20-17: [Playoff impact: Zero. Both are out.] Upset! Joshua Dobbs will pitch for injured Brock Purdy for 49ers, but like San Fran anyway vs. an Arizona squad missing both top RBs. Niners had won four straight in series before Cards got by 24-23 in October. Zona is on a 1-5 skid, and SF is motivated to end strong an uncharacteristically down year wracked by injuries.

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of mid-afternoon Thursday.]

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