TAMPA, Fla. — In a situation such as this, I am journalistically obliged to preach calm.

Yes, the Bucs are in first place. Yes, they are huge favorites in the regular-season finale against New Orleans. Yes, they are on the verge of a franchise-record fifth consecutive postseason appearance.

But in the any-given-Sunday environment of the NFL, a fan should take nothing for granted. To assume is risky. To anticipate is reckless. To count on another playoff game at Raymond James Stadium is just foolhardy and presumptuous.

On the other hand, who do you like as a first-round opponent?

Oh, let the party pooper next-door be proper and sensible. You’ve got ribs to prepare and trash to talk. If you can’t be unhinged with a playoff clincher staring you in the face, what’s the sense in being a rabid sports fan?

Tampa Bay is a 13-point favorite against the Saints at home on Sunday. If the Bucs can’t close that deal, then we’ve got bigger issues to worry about than prematurely coveting a particular playoff foe.

So, who do you like?

The Lions? The Vikings? The Commanders or the Packers?

All four teams would theoretically be on the table for Tampa Bay as a first-round opponent. Presuming the Bucs win Sunday — this conversation would be moot otherwise, unless the Falcons lost, too — Tampa Bay would either be the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC.

To clinch the No. 3 seed, the Bucs would need to beat the Saints, and the Rams would need to lose to the Seahawks. That’s not an outlandish possibility because the Rams have already clinched a playoff spot and might be inclined to take their foot off the gas while protecting some players in a non-essential game. Although you might also argue the Rams would rather be No. 3 and avoid a first-round matchup against a 14-win Vikings or Lions team.

As the No. 3 seed, the Bucs would face either the Commanders or the Packers. If the Commanders win, they would be the No. 6 seed and head to Tampa Bay. If the Commanders lose and the Packers win, then Green Bay would be the No. 6 seed.

If, however, the Rams win, then the NFC South champion (presumably the Bucs) would automatically slot into the No. 4 seed. That means the Bucs would face the loser of Sunday night’s Lions-Vikings game in the first round.

The good news is the Bucs have already beaten the Lions and Commanders this season. The bad news is those games were more than three months ago, and the Bucs would be entering the playoffs with the least-impressive record in the NFC playoff field.

With that in mind, here’s a look at the possibilities for Tampa Bay:

Lions (14-2)

Detroit has been the darling of the NFL for most of the season, and they are a fun and formidable team. But, oddly enough, they’re also a team the Bucs might want to face. Forget Tampa Bay’s 20-16 win in Detroit on Sept. 15. It was a long time ago and the Lions outplayed the Bucs for much of that game. The more intriguing idea is Detroit’s defense has been wiped out by injuries. Six of their defensive starters from Week 1 are on injured reserve, including Aidan Hutchinson who dominated Tampa Bay in the first meeting. The last four weeks, the Lions have given up 32.5 points a game.

Vikings (14-2)

On paper, this is a scary team. A top-10 offense, a top-5 defense. Quarterback Sam Darnold has a reclamation story that rivals Baker Mayfield. The Vikings go into Sunday’s game against Detroit on a nine-game winning streak. If you want to be picky, the Vikings have only faced seven teams that currently have winning records, going 5-2. Also, Minnesota has had a lot of success (luck?) in close games. The Vikings are 8-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer.

Packers (11-5)

Green Bay had the misfortune of being stuck in the toughest division in football. The Packers are 1-4 in the North and 10-1 against everyone else. Even their losses have been impressive. Green Bay has dropped five games by a total of 22 points, and every loss has been against a playoff team. The Packers have the best turnover differential (plus-12) in the NFC and one of the better running games in the conference. If they have holes, the Packers hide them well.

Commanders (11-5)

Most likely, the best hope for the Bucs. And not because Tampa Bay beat Washington, 37-20, in the season opener. That was the NFL debut of Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, and he’s only gotten better since then. Daniels has been on a roll lately with a 103.9 passer rating and 76 yards rushing per game in the last five weeks. The bigger issue is Washington’s mediocre defense. The Commanders are 1-4 against playoff teams and have given up an average of 30.8 points in those losses.

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