Deep into its third week, the war in Iran is beginning to chafe President Donald Trump’s wider foreign policy and domestic agenda. Trump, who is often immune from the types of repercussions other politicians typically face, now has his back against the wall as gas prices continue to rise, the global oil supply dwindles and lawmakers on Capitol Hill get increasingly antsy about why the United States needed to bomb Iran in the first place.

Based solely on military metrics, the United States has plenty of accomplishments to brag about. According to the Pentagon, Iranian ballistic missile launches are down by 90%. Iranian drone attacks have been reduced even more. Approximately 100 Iranian naval vessels have been destroyed, and it’s a safe bet more will be hit by the time this column goes to press. Kharg Island, where the vast majority of Iran’s crude oil is exported, is now in the Trump administration’s crosshairs as it seeks to strangle Tehran’s economy even further.

Yet nobody discounted the U.S. military’s might. Even the most die-hard anti-American cleric in the Iranian political system did not harbor illusions that Iran could defeat the United States in conventional ways. What Iran is able to do, however, is use asymmetric tactics to make the war as economically and politically painful for Trump as possible. Iran’s whole war strategy revolves around targeting the Persian Gulf’s energy facilities, deterring oil tankers from using the normally busy Strait of Hormuz and driving up energy prices so that Americans feel it in their wallets. That economic turbulence, the logic goes, would then create political problems for Trump at home with midterm elections less than eight months away.

Based on the statistics, Iran’s strategy is working. About 100 tankers are stranded on either end of the Strait of Hormuz, bottling up traffic. Global oil supply will decline by 8 million barrels per day this month, according to the International Energy Agency, a consequence of producers such as Iraq and the United Arab Emirates shutting down production and oil-carrying cargo ships staying put. Hovering around $100 a barrel, global oil prices are up by nearly 50% from a month ago. At the time of writing, a gallon of regular gas was 78 cents higher than it was a month ago.

For a president who railed at predecessor Joe Biden for high inflation and high fuel costs, these developments are awkward to say the least. Even Republican lawmakers normally eager to repeat the White House’s political messaging can’t deny the fact that thinner wallets aren’t exactly great for the party’s election prospects.

Trump administration officials spent their Sunday morning jumping on the political shows and trying to reassure Americans that everything will be back to normal once the war is over. But that message goes only so far given the fact that Trump himself has been scatterbrained about when that date will come, what his definition of victory is and what he’s even trying to accomplish.

Despite attempts at damage control, the war is not going according to plan. Inexplicably, the White House seemed caught off guard that Iran, with its leaders seeking sheer survival, would quickly escalate by taking shots at the Middle East’s oil infrastructure and clogging up the region’s key waterway. Trump, perhaps recognizing his initial assumptions were wildly off the mark, is now scrambling to reopen the strait by pressuring everybody from NATO to China to get more involved. Those calls have been met with eye-rolling and righteous indignation.

“This is not our war; we have not started it,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius replied after Trump read the riot act to NATO countries. It’s the height of irony that Trump, who not so long ago berated United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer for refusing to support the U.S. bombing campaign in its opening days, is now begging Starmer to send more British warships to the Gulf.

There are geopolitical factors to consider as well. The war is beginning to compromise some of the other aspects of Trump’s foreign policy. Because Iran is deliberately squeezing the oil supply, the Trump administration has been forced to enact measures to cushion some of the blow. In early March, the U.S. Treasury Department permitted India to purchase Russian crude oil at sea. On Thursday, the White House expanded that country-specific waiver worldwide: Russian oil on tankers can now be purchased for a 30-day period. The move is designed to make up for some of the Middle East’s shortfall. The problem is that Russian President Vladimir Putin will now be earning more cash, perhaps as much as $150 million a day, that could be repurposed for his war in Ukraine. This, in turn, will further complicate Trump’s efforts to end the conflict.

Washington’s China policy could be affected as well. Trump is now threatening to delay his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month if Beijing doesn’t help unplug the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the Chinese choosing to do favors for Trump is difficult to imagine. And if the summit is postponed, the one-year trade and tariff truce Trump and Xi negotiated last year could be at risk of falling apart. If you think the global economy is chaotic today, just wait until the world’s two largest economies slap each other with sky-high tariff rates and export controls again.

As boxer Mike Tyson once said, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.” This applies to war as well.

Unfortunately, Trump’s plan has been upended, and he’s forced to find a new one on the fly.

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Daniel DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune.

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