FAU national poll finds Harris leads Trump, 50% to 45%

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump, 50% to 45%, in a nationwide Florida Atlantic University poll released Thursday.

There has been little change in the last three weeks despite momentous events, including the Harris-Trump debate last week and the thwarted assassination attempt against Trump on Sunday.

In FAU’s previous national poll, released Aug. 27, the results were essentially the same: 49% for Harris and 45% for Trump.

“It could simply be that the race has become very static. Or it could be that the bounce from the (Democratic) convention started to decline a little bit and then the debate happened,” Wagner said. “It suggests that the gains that she made around the (convention) have carried into September.”

Even though the poll was conducted after the thwarted assassination attempt over the weekend at the Trump International Golf Course near West Palm Beach, FAU political scientist Kevin Wagner said the poll results may not reflect people’s views on what happened.

Wagner is also co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science, which conducted the poll.

Initially, he said, it doesn't appear as if there was an impact in public opinion. But he also said it sometimes takes time for people to sort out how they feel about a major event.

One big caveat to the national poll results: The presidential race isn’t a national contest. It’s a series of state by state competitions for electoral college votes, so a nationwide lead doesn’t necessarily mean a candidate will win the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

Just 3% of likely voters in the latest survey said they were undecided and 2% said they planned to vote for another candidate. In a close race, those voters’ choices — whether they show up, and if they do who they vote for — could make a difference in who wins the presidency.

If those voters actually show up, or if they shift to one candidate or another, that could make a difference in who wins the presidency.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, so either candidate could be doing somewhat better or worse.

FAU’s findings are in line with most recent high-caliber national polls. The New York Times national polling tracker on Thursday showed Harris with an average of 49% to 47% for Trump.

Other findings

FAU found a yawning gender gap.

Women favor Harris, 51% to 44%, an advantage of 7 points. Among men, the candidates are essentially tied, with 48% for Harris and 47% for Trump.

The gender gap didn't seem to be as large when President Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate.

“The gender gap has returned with Harris at the top of the ticket and it is significant,” Wagner said. “To some degree that’s a good indicator that the reproductive rights issue has been a significant advantage for the Harris campaign."

There are also some significant differences between younger voters, who prefer Trump, and older voters, who favor Harris.

Among voters 50 and older, Harris had 54% and Trump had 42%.

Among voters under 50, Trump led 50% to 43%.

Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly support their party’s candidates.

Among Democrats, 91% support Harris. Among Republicans, 88% support Trump.

Independents support Harris 47% to 40% but are significantly more likely than Democrats and Republicans to say they’d vote for another candidate (6%) or are undecided (8%).

Who will win?

Aside from who they plan to vote for, pollsters asked voters who they think will win.

Among all voters — a group that’s slightly different than likely voters — 54% said they believe Harris will win, with 46% predicting a Trump victory.

Each side is optimistic about its chances, with 91% of Democrats and 86% of Republicans predicting their candidate will win. Among independents, 56% see Harris as the winner and 44% said it would be Trump.

Fine print

The poll of 820 U.S. registered voters was conducted Sept. 16 and 17 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.

The survey used an online panel and automated phone calls to reach other voters. It has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents.

However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

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