The National Hurricane Center is continues to monitor a system in the Atlantic with low odds of developing into the seasons next tropical depression or storm and weakening Tropical Storm Rafael.

As of the NHC 7 a.m. tropical outlook, disorganized showers and thunderstorms have decreased in area coverage since yesterday near a trough of low pressure located less than a couple of hundred miles east of the central Bahamas.

“Development is becoming less likely as the system is forecast to reach more unfavorable environmental conditions later today,” forecasters said. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible as the system moves generally westward across the Bahamas through tonight.”

The NHC gave it a 10% chance of development in the next two to seven days.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rafael continues to weaken in the Gulf of Mexico and posing no threat to land for now.

As of the NHC 4 a.m. tropical outlook, Tropical Storm Rafael was 355 miles north-northwest of Progresso, Mexico, moving north-northwest at 2 mph. Its maximum sustained winds are 40 mph and tropical-storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.

Forecasters said the storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday.

“Weakening is expected through early next week, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by Monday,” NHC said.

Rafael became the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1-Nov. 30. It was the 11th hurricane and fifth major hurricane of the above average season.

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