Two years ago, the United Auto Workers launched an ambitious campaign to organize transplant auto factories in the South, planning to use the record contracts it had just achieved with the Detroit Three automakers to add up to 150,000 members to its ranks.

The Detroit union quickly collected worker signatures across several plants, and by April 2024 it had won its first election at a Volkswagen AG factory in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Organizers looked primed to ride the momentum to more victories.

Optimism around that effort has since faded. Besides organizing the Volkswagen assembly plant, the union won an election at a sprawling EV battery complex in Kentucky jointly operated by Ford Motor Co. and SK On. And just the threat of unionization at some plants led car companies to increase pay for their non-union workers, UAW leaders pointed out.

But about 3,000 Volkswagen workers are still waiting on their first contract as negotiations drag on, several months after they voted to authorize a possible strike.

Those delays have fueled a recent worker campaign inside the plant to reverse the original unionization vote: "Decertify the UAW and take your raise without all the drama," the organization's website reads.

"A lot of workers are questioning: Can we get them out?" Darrell Belcher, a VW worker who voted against the union originally and is helping to organize the current anti-union campaign. "People just ain't happy."

At the Kentucky plant, meanwhile, the final outcome of the contested union election that took place in August was only decided by the National Labor Relations Board a couple weeks ago. The NLRB found that certain challenged ballots should not be counted, formally handing the union the victory in an election that was only decided by 11 votes.

Yet that ruling in the UAW's favor came only after all 1,514 workers at the plant were told in December they were being laid off amid slowing EV sales and the plant's eventual pivot to making energy storage batteries.

"There was a lot of things that were against us, but I didn't think they'd be like, 'Bye, see you later,' " said Sandie Yarborough, who worked at the plant for about a year before the recent layoff.

The UAW's southern slowdown comes amid broader headwinds and distractions as the organization enters an election year for its top leadership. It is navigating a tricky relationship with President Donald Trump, supporting his tariff policies while criticizing many others, while some members and union watchers also say internal leadership turmoil and scathing reports filed by the union's federal watchdog also have distracted from the organizing push.

"I think the UAW hoped to ride momentum, but the hope wasn't realized," said Stephen Silvia, an American University professor who wrote the book "The UAW's Southern Gamble" and has tracked its organizing efforts. "At this point, there's no more momentum."

Layoffs in Kentucky

UAW Vice President Laura Dickerson believes the union's wins in both Kentucky and Tennessee will pay off despite recent hurdles.

In Kentucky, after the favorable NLRB decision, the joint venture that has owned the two battery plants near Elizabethtown, called BlueOval SK, now has "a legal obligation to bargain the effects of the closure with us," she said in an interview. The UAW recently sent a letter to the company formally making that bargaining demand.

The layoffs occurred as Ford and SK ended their joint venture and halted EV battery production. A Ford subsidiary now plans to retool the facility and eventually hire 2,100 workers to make energy storage products instead.

Dickerson said the UAW wants a commitment that its members will be hired back under the new ownership when the time comes and that they continue to be recognized as union members. The union is circulating a petition among the laid-off workers — it's so far collected more than 1,000 signatures — that it plans to soon present to top Ford executives.

The petition explains how the workers successfully voted to form a union and asks the automaker to make things right.

"We do want to deliver this and basically let the company know that the workers want them to hear their voice," said Dickerson, who oversees the UAW's Ford Department.

Yarborough, who had worked at the battery plant in cell assembly for about a year before she was laid off, hopes the union can help her and others return when the plant reopens under the Ford subsidiary. She said the job offered solid pay and benefits and a great culture.

"I know that the UAW is going to fight for our succession rights, and for a seat at the table," she said.

In the meantime, Yarborough has begun the search for a new gig, but "the jobs aren't comparable to what BlueOval was paying, and they're kind of far away — some are an hour or more away — and I think the job market is just not good anyway."

NLRB filings show that the company and union continue to wrangle over the election's final outcome. Last week, BlueOval SK requested a review of the agency's decision, arguing in part that because the plant is shuttering and the joint venture ending, there is no point in recognizing the UAW as representing workers there. The union shot back by saying the company is seeking "a third bite at the apple" and was restating legal arguments it had already made.

Representatives for BlueOval SK and Ford didn't respond to requests for comment.

VW agreement close?

At the Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga, Dickerson said UAW bargainers are hopeful they can strike a tentative contract agreement within the next month.

"They're still working through some of the details on that, but it looks very promising," she said. "We're excited. We hope that it comes soon. And I know that you've been hearing that a lot, right? But I do think we're closer than we've been."

Talks have dragged on at the plant that makes the Atlas, Atlas Cross Sport and ID.4 SUVs. In October, members gave leadership permission to call a strike. That followed what Volkswagen had called its "final offer" to the union, which included a 20% raise over four years, a first cost-of-living allowance, ratification bonus and improved time-off provisions.

The automaker urged the union to let its members vote on it, but the UAW said the offer didn't offer key job security language, and that union officials also wanted more improvements on health care and wages.

In the weeks after the strike authorization vote, rumors trickled out that the two sides were close to a deal. Instead, it's been a quiet few months, but Dickerson said meetings between the two sides have continued. A Volkswagen spokesperson, Michael Lowder, said he didn't have any updates to share on the status of the talks.

"I think it's taken longer than expected," said Silvia, the American University professor. "I think both parties wanted a quick agreement, but the bargaining positions they started with — UAW wanting (a contract) to look like the Big Three and Volkswagen wanting to be competitive — that was a big span to bridge. That's been the challenge."

As the negotiations continued, a website popped up late last year, TakeYourVWRaise.com, asking workers to sign a petition to decertify the union — an effort to essentially unwind the 2024 unionization vote and accept Volkswagen's offer that is already on the table, which the site claims will be provided with or without the union. If 30% of members sign the petition, it would trigger an election where a majority "no" vote could remove the union.

Belcher, one of the workers behind the campaign, said frustration has grown in some quarters of the plant as the talks have dragged out, and after members weren't able to vote on Volkswagen's last offer.

He said he's concerned that if the union is too aggressive with its demands, it could hurt worker job security down the road. Belcher declined to say how close the group was to reaching 30% but added that the campaign has made more progress than some would believe: "It's coming along real good," he said.

Maury Nicely, a Chattanooga labor attorney who is helping the decertification campaigners and has supported similar anti-UAW efforts in the past, also wouldn't describe how far along organizers were with signature gathering. But he said the group, which has received financial support from local businesses, is making progress again after taking a break around the holidays.

As for the UAW negotiations with Volkswagen, Nicely said that for now, it appeared neither a tentative agreement nor a strike were imminent: "We're in a limbo, wait-and-see moment."

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